Newsletter 06/2025: Actual situation in international transport

RAIL TRANSPORT FROM THE FAR EAST

OCEAN TRANSPORT AND PORT CONGESTION

As we mentioned in the introduction, it seems that the shipping of Christmas goods from the Far East has begun. Or at least the first waves. Shippers have flooded under June prices in anticipation of just such a recovery. As a result, we are seeing the usual situation where part of the market is not trusting and counting on prices falling back. However, this is not happening yet as the shipowners are reporting full boats. We are also witnessing situations where a shipowner sees that his ship is filling up quickly below the spot price offered and does not hesitate to close it and later reopen it with a price adjusted accordingly.

 It is not only on the Asian-European tradelane that boats are filling up.  

The US market is now quickly taking advantage of the favourable situation where tariffs are suspended, because the situation around the tariffs is changing by the minute and traders cannot be sure of anything. We are almost hesitant to write that the Court of Appeals has reinstated the tariffs previously struck down by the Federal Court, because at the time of publication everything may be different again. Other reports say that the appeals court merely stayed the federal decision pending clarification.

In practice, this means feverish ordering and demand on the China-U.S. or transpacific line is filling ships. So much so, in fact, that shipowners are starting to cancel blank sailings, calling in ships previously diverted elsewhere. And you don't exactly have to be a logistics expert to sense what's going to happen when those volumes arrive in the U.S. Yes, U.S. ports and logistics experts, expect congestion. How big is anybody's guess, but the ships waiting outside ports and the missing containers and the implications for the global supply chain are still remembered by many from previous similar situations.

European ports are not waiting and are already under severe congestion. In a previous newsletter we reported on the blockage at the CTB terminal, now we are looking at the serious situation at Bremerhaven where containers are waiting up to 14 days for removal, but reports are talking about congestion across all ports from Rotterdam, to Antwerp, Bremerhaven and Hamburg.

In other positive news, the Houthis have declared that they will not attack commercial ships that are not docked in the port of Haifa. Thus, after 18 months, the canal appears to be free. On the other hand, much has been said and the shipowners will be so careful before they return to Suez. Apart from the credibility of such statements, this has to be taken into account in the threat of worsening congestion in European ports and thus the services that have slowly begun to stabilise in the Africa circumnavigation regime. Nevertheless, the first swallows are here. We are finding out which services and ships could and should pass through Suez and bring you at least a partial reduction in transit time.

NINGBO - express service

CBAM AND GOOD NEWS AT LAST

The EU exempts around 90 percent of companies from having to collect CO₂ charges from border settlements on certain goods imported from countries with less stringent climate protection requirements. The European Parliament voted in favour of the corresponding proposal last Thursday.

 

The amended law introduces a de minimis limit of 50 tonnes per year - excluding hydrogen and electricity. This would exempt especially small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals who import only small quantities of goods, according to the EP. However, the CBAM's environmental targets remain achievable, as 99% of total CO₂ emissions from imports of iron, steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers should continue to be recorded.

 

We will keep you posted on what this will mean in practice and what level of reporting in the system will continue to be required as reports talk about the waiving of the levy. As well as the date from which the amendment will come into force.