Newsletter 16/2023: The impact of the Red Sea incidents on the ocean links

Over the past few days, 20 attacks on merchant ships by Houthi rebels in western Yemen have been recorded. Container ships transiting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have also been hit. So far, there has been no loss of life of seafarers or major material damage.

Most shipowners have already announced the rerouting of ships on the Europe-Asia routes to the Africa route (around the Cape of Good Hope). Others are likely to do the same - possibly continuing to route their ships through the Suez Canal, but waiting for an armed escort to form (military ships have been sent to the area by France, the UK and the US) and sailing through the critical area in convoys.

 

In the picture you can see a visualisation of the current diversion of ships, produced by the analytical company Alphaliner.

 

Neither of these two options is good in terms of transport times. The circumnavigation of the Cape of Good Hope extends the journey by 14 days at best, but can reach delays of up to 1 month. In addition, there will again be a "bunching" of ships in front of the ports of discharge, as more may arrive at the same time in the same period. In addition to the illegible shipping times, this will undoubtedly put upward pressure on shipping rates. Whether because of the higher fuel consumption in circumnavigating Africa or the introduction of risk surcharges.

 

The MSC shipbuilder has already announced the introduction of the Contingency Adjustment Charge to the Middle East region.

So it is obvious that the rerouting of ships will also apply to the Middle East (Gulf, etc.) and India/Pakistan routes.

 

For shipments to or from China that require a predictable transit time, we recommend considering the use of rail. For other destinations - at least for critical cargo quantities then consider air or combined sea-air transport. After all, there are only a few weeks left before the Chinese holidays.

 

We will be happy to consult with you on solutions for specific shipments. sales@wakestone.cz